Michigan surge for Romney
Posted by Richard on November 1, 2012
Detroit News columnist Nolan Finley:
If the polls are right and Michigan really is suddenly in play in the presidential race, it’s a very, very bad sign for President Obama’s re-election hopes.
The Detroit News WDIV-Channel 4 poll this week placed Mitt Romney at just 2.7 points behind Obama, well within the margin of error and erasing a lead for the president that had been as high as 14 points after the Democratic National Convention.
The narrowing of the race in a state that Obama won by 16 points in 2008 bodes ill for the president nationally. Michigan was never expected to be this competitive.
While both campaigns have had the state on the watch list and continued nominal spending on ads, Romney hasn’t been here since August and Obama since April.
And why would they come here? Michigan hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
But if history is wrong and Obama is indeed on the verge of losing a state so reliably blue it may well portend a nationwide collapse.
I’m not religious, but when I read that the phrase “From your lips to God’s ear” popped into my head.
UPDATE: I just checked Rasmussen Reports (one of the most accurate polling firms in the last several elections), and they have these recent swing state poll results:
- Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (11/01). In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin, 56% to 42%.
- Iowa: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (11/01). In 2008, Obama won Iowa, 54% to 44%.
- Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 47% (11/01). In 2008, Obama won Colorado, 54% to 45%.
- Ohio: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (10/29). In 2008, Obama won Ohio, 51% to 47%.
- Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (10/26). In 2008, Obama won Florida, 51% to 48%.
- Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (10/25). In 2008, Obama won Virginia, 53% to 46%.
- New Hampshire: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (10/24). In 2008, Obama won New Hampshire, 54% to 45%.
Dick Morris argues that any state in which the sitting president can do no better than a tie this close to the election will go to the challenger, because most of the undecideds will swing to the challenger. From his lips to God’s ear. 🙂
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